What this number measures — and what it does not
GDP per resident is a division: all the economic output of a territory divided by the number of people registered as living there. It is not income, not wages, and not what a household has left. Whoever produces the output need not live here; whoever receives the profits need not be resident. In a tourism economy with many residents and many owners outside the archipelago, the measure can come out low without describing the whole situation. The caveat cuts both ways: it is also no proof that the Canaries are better off than it shows. It says how much output falls to each resident — not how that output is distributed.
Four years of rises: 72.28 was the floor
The series is not a steady decline. The index fell from 93.84 in 2000 almost without interruption to 79.47 in 2019, and then to 72.28 in the pandemic year 2020 — Spain's second-sharpest real contraction at minus 18.76 per cent, with only the Balearics losing more. It has risen every year since: 72.89 for 2021, 77.24 for 2022, 78.31 for 2023 and 79.25 for 2024. Four consecutive rises, and in euros GDP per head of 25,861 is well above the 21,159 of 2019. What is missing is the distance to the national average: Spain grew as well, which is why the index is still below its pre-crisis level.
The denominator: 581,000 more residents
Most of the shortfall arises below the line. Table 4 puts the Canary population at around 1,667,400 on 1 July 2000 and 2,248,400 in 2024 — 581,000 more, or 34.8 per cent. Spain grew by 20.5 per cent over the same period, from 40.55 to 48.86 million. A fraction whose denominator grows faster falls even when the numerator rises. A calculation by this newsroom separates the two effects: decomposing the relative shortfall in logarithms, roughly 71 per cent is down to the faster population growth and roughly 29 per cent to slower growth in output. That is a decomposition, not an explanation of causes.
But the numerator is short too
Population does not explain everything. The volume changes in Table 3 allow cumulative real growth from 2000 to 2024 to be worked out; this newsroom chained the 24 annual rates. The result: Canaries plus 39.6 per cent, Spain plus 46.1 per cent, Madrid plus 69.9 per cent. The archipelago did grow in real terms, but more slowly than the country. Accordingly the Canary share of Spanish GDP fell from 3.86 per cent to 3.65 per cent, while its share of the population rose from 4.11 to 4.60 per cent. One figure from the same release fits the picture: Canary investment grew by an average of 0.6 per cent a year between 2019 and 2023, against 5.1 per cent nationally — the second-lowest rate after La Rioja.
The next number lands on Wednesday
On Wednesday 30 September 2026 the INE publishes the advance estimate of regional GDP for 2025, updating the whole 2000 to 2025 series; the full version, with employment, pay and investment, follows in December. Both dates are in the INE's publication calendar, which gives no time of day. The one number to watch: whether the Canary index rises above 80 for the first time since 2018. It stood at 80.36 in 2018, 79.47 in 2019 and 79.25 in 2024. Whether it happens is open — the advance also revises earlier years, and the population at 1 July 2025 enters the fraction just as output does. This newsroom makes no forecast.