What changes for visitors and residents now?

Nothing changes in the short term, either for prices or for rules. Jordi Bercedo's column of 12 November 2026 names no deadlines, aid or ways to apply.

Bercedo warns that a rising Ibex does not mean families are doing equally better. Shopping, housing and services stay expensive, the economist writes.

Holidaymakers in the south of Tenerife should not expect prices to fall quickly. Cheaper oil reaches transport, production and consumer prices only with a delay, according to Bercedo, and no official price data back this up.

The situation mainly affects residents with a variable-rate mortgage. In Spain these loans are usually tied to the Euribor, which follows the interest-rate expectations of the European Central Bank.

What does Bercedo write about shares, oil and interest rates?

Bercedo sees two bright spots: the Ibex 35 nears 20,000 points, and Brent is below 90 dollars from over 118 at the end of October. He gives no sources, exact levels or dates.

Banks lead the recovery, he says, and falling oil prices ease pressure on energy costs. Whether the traditional Rally de Papá Noel (the year-end rally) arrives, he answers with “es posible”, meaning possible.

Looking to December, Bercedo expects both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve to raise rates. That would make mortgages and business loans dearer, he writes; his expectation on the Fed is unverified.

He names artificial intelligence as a second risk. If the huge investments bring too little profit, heavily weighted companies could drag indices down worldwide.

His closing line runs roughly: “Let us not mistake a good market close for a good economic year for everyone.” He gives no figure for it.

What has the ECB decided so far?

The ECB left rates unchanged on 29 October 2026, by unanimous vote, CaixaBank Research notes. The deposit rate stayed at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.

The ECB Governing Council discussed a rise but wanted to gather more information first. President Christine Lagarde hinted that a rise will follow in December unless the outlook changes sharply.

According to CaixaBank Research, markets put about 80% odds on a deposit rate of 2.75%. That view dates from 29 October and is therefore two weeks old.

Lagarde has announced she will leave in early February, and no successor has been named. The exact date of the December meeting is not confirmed.

How does the stock market rise fit the Canary Islands economy?

The Ibex 35 returned 49.3% in 2025, the second-best annual return in its history. Only 1993 did better, at 54.2%.

On 4 August 2026 the index closed above 20,000 points for the first time, at 20,023.6, up 0.21%. The gain since the start of the year then stood at about 15.5%, market reports noted.

The Canary economy grows more slowly: BBVA Research expects 2.1% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027. For Spain the bank forecasts 2.6% and 2.1%, so the islands sit 0.5 percentage points below the national average.

BBVA still expects tourism to grow, but more slowly. It cites rising prices, high occupancy, difficulties outside peak season and a possible recovery of rival destinations hit by the war in the Middle East.

What happened on 11 November and what comes next?

A general strike, called “11N”, took place in the Canary Islands on 11 November 2026. According to a Diario de Avisos report of 18 October, the unions UGT, CCOO, Federación Sindical Canaria and Intersindical Canaria backed it.

The unions cited housing and rents, wages and blocked collective agreements. Daniel Casal (Federación Sindical Canaria) put the wage gap between Canary and Spanish average pay at about 500 euros, and the unions pointed to 211,000 empty homes.

Daniel Casal of the Federación Sindical Canaria does not rule out another general strike. No turnout figure for 11 November could be found.

Casal also mentioned “elections of 29N”, which points to 29 November. The date is not officially confirmed and should be checked in the BOE (the Spanish state gazette).

Next up is the ECB meeting in December, whose date is open. Lagarde leaves in early February 2027.