The «Observatorio Electoral de Canarias» surveyed 1,639 people between 19 and 25 May (online survey, margin of error ±2.45 percent) — with an eye on the 2027 elections. The distinctive feature: the study measures not only who is ahead, but the so-called transfer matrices — who moves from which party to which. And that is precisely where it gets interesting.
The entrenched right: VOX grows at the PP's expense
The most striking finding concerns VOX. No other party in the archipelago binds its voters so firmly: 80.3 percent of those who previously voted VOX regionally stay with it — four out of five. At the same time, however, 40.8 percent of today's VOX voters come from other parties, above all the Partido Popular. The study speaks of an «entrenched right»: VOX consolidates its space while the PP acts as its main supplier. The PP itself retains only 50.4 percent of its former voters; almost four in ten move away.
The loyal but crumbling left
On the other side stands the PSOE — the party with the most loyal core electorate: 80.7 percent of today's PSOE voters have voted socialist before, only just over ten percent come from elsewhere. The Socialists' problem is not defection to rivals but growing indecision: 15.8 percent of their former voters do not know today what they will do. It is this effect that creates uncertainty in several constituencies.
The centre holds — just
Among the major forces, Coalición Canaria (CC) proves the most stable: 60.9 percent retention in the regional vote, 66.1 percent at island level, and fairly evenly across all islands. Here too the main threat is not the competition but indecision — one in eight former CC voters has not yet decided.
The big loser — and its own splinter
Hardest hit is Nueva Canarias (NC). The party retains only 40.5 percent of its former voters and records the largest drift into indecision (26.8 percent) and to other options (31.2 percent). The twist: a key reason is a force from its own ranks. The newly founded Primero Canarias — a splinter from the NC milieu — draws 91.5 percent of its voters from other parties, foremost Nueva Canarias itself. NC is thus bleeding out, of all things, to the benefit of its own splinter. The study warns, however, that this growth of Primero Canarias is not yet settled loyalty but above all an ability to gather up the discontented.
The real battlefield: the undecided
The central insight of the study is the weight of the undecided. This «hidden pool» consists 56.8 percent of former non-voters — people who were already at a distance from politics. The rest, however, are former voters of specific parties, above all the PSOE (16.6 percent) and CC (8.2 percent). Remarkably, the right barely feeds this pool of uncertainty; it is the centre and the left that concentrate the undecided potential. Whoever mobilises these people in 2027 is likely to shape the next parliament.
When the island brand beats ideology
An interesting secondary finding: in the cabildo (island council) elections, voters behave differently. The island level rewards territorial roots and especially strengthens CC (on Tenerife 78.2 percent retention, the splinter Drago Canarias as much as 86 percent). On Gran Canaria, by contrast, NC loses ground to Primero Canarias. The Canarian peculiarity that the island brand often weighs more than the region-wide party is thus confirmed once again.
The TV line fuelling the debate
Into precisely this mix came an appearance this week that caused a stir. Cristina Valido, the sole CC deputy in the Spanish Congress, engaged in a thought experiment on the television programme «En boca de todos» (Cuatro). Asked the hypothetical question of whether she would support a motion of no confidence by the PP and VOX against Pedro Sánchez's central government, she replied: «If this were a dictatorship and I alone decided, and it were to call elections immediately, then yes.» She herself expressly called it «political fiction».
The remark is sensitive because CC has so far supported the Sánchez government. Recently, however, the party has openly called for fresh elections or a confidence vote — against the backdrop of corruption investigations around the PSOE. «The referee blew time. Now it's the citizens' turn», Valido said in a radio interview. Whether the thought experiment becomes real politics is open — no motion of no confidence is currently on the table. But the tone marks a growing distance between the Canarian nationalists and Madrid.
What it means for the Canaries
For readers who live here, the message is twofold. First: there is still plenty of time until the 2027 elections, and an online poll is a snapshot, not an oracle — the margin of error and the method (online self-completion) counsel caution. Second, though, a clear trend is emerging: the Canarian party system is fragmenting further, new forces like Primero Canarias and Drago are eating into the established parties, and the decisive factor is no longer the classic left-right battle but the huge group of the undecided. That is exactly what we suspected back in April: on the Canaries it is rarely the loud election win that decides, but the quiet arithmetic behind it.
We are staying on it — and will evaluate new polls as they appear.