How many jobs will be left open in the Canary Islands?

Around 41,600 (41,662 precisely) between 2030 and 2040, according to a Fundación Adecco analysis reported by Canarias7 and Libertad Digital.

Why does the gap open?

Because the large baby boomer generation retires while too few young people have entered the workforce since 2010.

About ten years, from 2030 to 2040 — a structural shift, not a sudden shock.

Who is expected to fill it?

The analysis points to older workers delaying retirement, immigrants, and people with disabilities.

Is the number certain?

No, it is a projection; the scale depends on migration, birth rates and labour-force participation.

CANARY ISLANDS · LABOUR MARKET

Baby boomer retirements to open a 41,600-job gap in the Canary Islands

The mass retirement of the baby boomer generation will open a noticeable gap in the Canary Islands' labour market over the next ten years. Around 41,600 people of working age are expected to leave the labour market between 2030 and 2040 — more than the number of young workers coming in behind them. The projection comes from an analysis by Fundación Adecco, as reported by Canarias7 and Libertad Digital on 20 August 2026.

21 August 2026 · By Julia Roca Bethencourt · 5 min

Photo: Tomas Castelazo, CC BY-SA 3.0 (Symbolbild).

This is a structural shift rather than a sudden shock: a generational handover (relevo generacional) that plays out across a whole decade. For companies on the archipelago, it raises a pointed question — where will the skilled workers of the future come from?

The 41,600 figure

According to the Fundación Adecco analysis, titled "Inclusión y Empleo ante el reto demográfico" ("Inclusion and Employment Facing the Demographic Challenge"), around 41,600 people of working age — 41,662 to be precise — will leave the Canary Islands labour market between 2030 and 2040, as relayed by Canarias7 and Libertad Digital.

Over the same period, some 183,000 people aged 65 and over are expected on the islands. That figure captures the demographic pressure sitting behind the gap. It is a projection, not a settled outcome.

Why the gap opens

The driver is a shift in the age structure. The 50-to-64 age group in the Canary Islands is currently about 37.6% larger than the 20-to-34 group, according to the analysis. By 2040 that gap is expected to narrow to 29.1% — but largely because the older cohort retires, not because more young people arrive.

The root cause is low birth rates since 2010. Put simply, fewer young people are entering the labour market than older workers are leaving it as they reach retirement age.

Who fills the gap

The analysis points to three groups where companies are likely to look harder for talent: older employees who delay retirement (senior talent, from age 55), immigrants through orderly migration matched to real needs, and people with disabilities.

Francisco Mesonero, general director of Fundación Adecco, stresses — according to the reports — the need to retain and update the know-how of older workers, close skills mismatches, and connect migration to the labour market's actual needs.

A ten-year challenge

The finding is analytical, not alarmist. The gap does not appear overnight; it spreads across the years from 2030 to 2040. The most exposed areas, on the logic of the analysis, are those that lean heavily on experienced staff and where knowledge is hard to replace at short notice.

How large the gap ultimately proves depends on several levers: on immigration, on the labour-force participation of older workers and women, and on how many people choose to postpone retirement.

What it means for business

For the archipelago's economy, the handover means workforce planning has to be thought through over a longer horizon. The analysis suggests retaining experience in-house, training deliberately, and building more diverse teams.

A meaningful part of the answer lies with groups still under-represented in the labour market — from older professionals to people with disabilities. Whether that fully absorbs the 41,600 openings remains an open question.

Tip for employers: Documenting experienced staff's know-how early and keeping older workers on through phased or partial retirement loses less expertise all at once.
Planning succession ahead of time is cheaper than scrambling to backfill.

Context: The 41,600 is a projection for 2030–2040, not a fixed number. How wide the gap opens depends on migration, birth rates and participation — the figure describes a risk, not a certain loss.

Key figures

Around 41,600 (41,662 precisely) working-age people leave the Canary Islands labour market in 2030–2040 (Fundación Adecco, via Canarias7/Libertad Digital)
Some 183,000 people aged 65+ expected over the same period
50-to-64s currently 37.6% more numerous than 20-to-34s; gap 29.1% by 2040
Root cause: low birth rates since 2010, fewer young entrants
Three possible sources of talent: older workers (55+), immigrants, people with disabilities
Timeframe: a structural generational handover across ten years

FAQ

How many jobs will be left open in the Canary Islands?: Around 41,600 (41,662 precisely) between 2030 and 2040, according to a Fundación Adecco analysis reported by Canarias7 and Libertad Digital.
Why does the gap open?: Because the large baby boomer generation retires while too few young people have entered the workforce since 2010.
Over what period?: About ten years, from 2030 to 2040 — a structural shift, not a sudden shock.
Who is expected to fill it?: The analysis points to older workers delaying retirement, immigrants, and people with disabilities.
Is the number certain?: No, it is a projection; the scale depends on migration, birth rates and labour-force participation.

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