What changes now for visitors and residents on Tenerife?
No new rule, warning or deadline on El Niño had been published for Tenerife by 5 November 2026. No restriction is known for the southern resorts either.
According to the newspaper Ara, the campaign's open letter is addressed to the government of the Madrid region. The campaign says its six proposed measures should apply equally to other autonomous regions.
AEMET (the state weather service) calls the link between El Niño and Spain's climate weak, says spokesman José Luis Camacho. No specific episode can be predicted for the archipelago.
No published source requires anyone to rebook or stock up. The best step for travellers and residents is to follow AEMET warnings.
What does the Alerta El Niño campaign ask of Madrid?
Engineer Liubba El Hadi presented the initiative, and Fernando Valladares and Carolina Yacamán spoke. Valladares is a research professor at the CSIC, while Yacamán teaches in the geography department at the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.
The campaign wants an expert committee, strategic reserves and better-protected infrastructure. Authorities for emergencies, civil protection, agriculture, water, public health and climate adaptation should quickly build the risk scenarios into their preparedness plans.
The researchers want reserves of food, medicines and basic goods, above all in large cities and their surrounding areas. They want to protect the primary sector “not only as an economic activity, but as essential infrastructure for our survival”.
For farming and livestock, the campaign calls for water management, agricultural insurance, feed and food reserves and help for small producers. That includes debt moratoriums and direct aid, aimed at the Spanish government, the agriculture ministry and the regions, depending on their powers.
Why are the researchers worried about food supply?
According to the initiators, high temperatures depress grain harvests. Costly diesel, fertiliser, transport and electricity also make farms harder to run, even before the feared worst effects arrive.
Valladares says forecasts for the strength of the event are worse than in summer. The Pacific surface could warm by up to four degrees above normal.
So far Valladares counts up to 22 directly affected countries. In almost all of them, the authorities reacted to floods and droughts only after the event.
The letter names a long, weather-related disruption to transport as the core risk for the Madrid region. The initiators say the same holds for other large urban areas.
A study cited in the report estimates more than 50,000 heat deaths in 854 European cities in summer 2026. In the 90 Spanish cities included, the figure is 6,824, of which 5,227 are attributed to climate change.
How dependent are the Canary Islands on food imports?
No official figure from ISTAC, the Canary Islands statistics office, on the import share of food is known. Figures of more than 80% to 90% circulate from a Tenerife farmers' association, but they are not official statistics.
The new association ATRATICAN, which unites farmers, livestock breeders and fishers, became known on 27 September 2025. Its president, José Antonio Gómez, warns that a sea blockade would leave the islands without food within days, but gives no official stock figures.
What do the weather services say about the winter?
The US agency NOAA writes in its 8 October 2026 analysis that El Niño is still strengthening. A strong to very strong event is more than 83% likely by January–March 2027.
Sea-surface anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific locally exceed +4.0 degrees. NOAA puts the chance of more than +2.5 degrees at 54% for September–November, 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January.
AEMET gives a 60 to 70% probability that September to November will be warmer than average in the Canaries. For a drier autumn it gives about 40%, and no outlook for the whole of winter 2026/27 is available.
According to AEMET, “Super Niño” is a media term, and the official scale has weak, moderate and strong. El Niño also strengthens wind shear over the Atlantic, which tends to slow the formation of tropical cyclones.
Which dates and open questions are there?
NOAA plans to publish its next analysis on 12 November 2026. NOAA and the WMO expect El Niño to peak between November 2026 and January 2027.
Reports say the AEMET forecast for December to February will appear at the end of November, but no date is confirmed. Until then, it stays open whether winter on the islands will be wetter or warmer.
No response to the letter from the Spanish government, the agriculture ministry or the Canary Islands government is known. No entry in the BOE (Spain's official state gazette) or the BOC (the Canary Islands official gazette) was found.
Whether Spain or the Canaries hold strategic food reserves, how large they would be and who would pay for them is unpublished. For Tenerife, the line for now is to watch, not act.