What does the forecast mean for holidaymakers from Germany and Europe?
The BBVA Research forecast does not name any specific flight cancellations or price increases for individual routes. It does, however, state that higher travel costs and already high occupancy rates may limit growth in the tourism sector.
For holidaymakers from Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, this means the supply of direct flights could come under pressure in the longer term if airlines align their capacity with expected demand. The report does not give a specific timetable or affected routes.
A tourism action plan with a budget of 48.3 million euros has been approved for 2026.
How are current tourist numbers developing?
According to the Instituto Canario de Estadística (ISTAC, the Canarian statistics institute), around 1.5 million tourists came to the Canary Islands in August 2026. That was 20,737 people or 1.4% more than in August 2025.
Overnight stays in hotels and other accommodation reached 9.6 million nights in August 2026, an increase of 2% compared with August 2025.
At the same time, 40,837 holiday rentals were available in August 2026 according to ISTAC, 14% fewer than a year earlier. This figure points to a shrinking supply in the vivienda vacacional (holiday rental) segment.
Why is tourism losing momentum?
BBVA Research identifies several brakes: higher travel costs, already high occupancy rates and difficulties in spreading demand more evenly across the year. The report also cites the lack of affordable housing and slowing immigration as factors that may limit the expansion of the tourism sector.
For 2027, BBVA Research expects a partial return of travellers to competing destinations currently affected by the war in the Middle East. The report also anticipates stronger demand for less crowded destinations.
The report presents this as part of the forecast, not as a development that has already occurred. The available sources do not name any binding measures or further dates for this.
What are the implications for residents and foreign residents?
The report does not announce any new levy, entry requirement, deadline, closure or entitlement rule. For residents, foreign residents and tourists, the sources cited therefore give rise to no new applications or payments in the immediate term.
The lack of affordable housing, which BBVA Research identifies as a limiting factor, already affects many residents of the Canary Islands today. The forecast suggests this pressure will not ease in the short term.
It remains open whether the predicted slowdown actually materialises and how strongly prices, occupancy, housing costs and employment develop. The available sources do not name any binding measures for this.
How does the Canarian economy compare with Spain?
Canarian gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. This puts the Canary Islands below the Spanish average: Spain is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
The gap is 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 0.2 percentage points in 2027. The report cites private consumption, employment and the export of services, including tourism, as reasons.
The Canary Islands will grow by 1.9% in 2027 according to BBVA; the national forecast is 2.1%. No value of 1.9% is given for the Balearic Islands in the source.
What are the next planned steps?
BBVA Research expects a partial return of travellers to competing destinations in the Middle East in 2027, as well as stronger demand for less crowded destinations. Both movements would reduce the contribution of tourism to Canarian growth.
The Canarian government has approved a tourism action plan with a budget of 48.3 million euros for 2026. The available information source from the Gobierno de Canarias does not name any further dates or specific measures to cushion the forecast.
For travellers, the situation remains stable for now: the current arrival and overnight stay figures from ISTAC continue to show growth, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.