What does the forecast mean for holidaymakers from Germany and Europe?
The BBVA forecast contains no immediate price changes, entry requirements or new charges. For holidaymakers from Germany, the UK and other European countries, nothing changes in the short term when it comes to booking or entering the islands.
In the longer term, however, the weaker growth could affect the availability of direct flights. BBVA Research cites higher holiday costs, already high occupancy levels and difficulties in reducing seasonality as brakes on tourism.
For 2027, BBVA Research also expects competing destinations to normalise. Travellers could partly return to markets previously affected by the war in the Middle East, or favour less crowded destinations.
How is tourism currently developing in the Canary Islands?
The latest available data from the Instituto Canario de Estadística (ISTAC, the Canary Islands statistics institute) show around 1.5 million tourists for August 2026. That is 20,737 people, or 1.4%, more than in August 2025.
At the same time, the number of available holiday rentals fell sharply. In August 2026, 40,837 holiday rentals were available, 14% fewer than in August 2025. This points to tighter supply in the accommodation sector.
Why is tourism losing strength as a growth engine?
BBVA Research names several factors that are slowing growth. They include higher holiday costs, already very high occupancy levels and the difficulty of spreading tourists more evenly across the year.
The lack of affordable housing and weakening inward migration also limit the tourism sector's ability to keep expanding, according to the report. Employment is expected to continue rising in 2026 and 2027, by roughly 2% each year according to Canarias7, but more slowly than in previous years.
For 2027, the expected normalisation of competing destinations could put additional pressure on the Canary Islands. Travellers could return to markets previously affected by the war in the Middle East or favour less crowded destinations.
What is the Canary Islands government's position on tourism?
The Viceconsejería de Economía e Internacionalización of the Gobierno de Canarias expects real GDP growth of 2.9% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026. This is set out in the document on the Autonomous Community's budget.
The Gobierno de Canarias continues to see tourism as the main driver of growth in 2026. The responsible Consejería de Turismo y Empleo and the public company Turismo de Islas Canarias manage tourism policy.
The board of Turismo de Islas Canarias approved the Plan de Actuación 2026. The plan includes measures on climate protection, premium segments, wellness, events, flight connections and tourism intelligence.
What does the forecast mean for residents and foreigners living on the islands?
For residents and foreigners living in the Canary Islands, the slower expected employment and economic growth is the most relevant factor. The source does not name any specific individual consequences.
Employment is expected to continue rising in 2026 and 2027, by roughly 2% each year according to Canarias7. That is slower than in previous years, but still an increase.
The lack of affordable housing is named in the BBVA report as a factor limiting the expansion of the tourism sector. No specific measure or new programme is announced in the report.
Which questions remain open and what happens next?
It remains open whether the BBVA forecasts will be confirmed by actual tourism demand, prices and the development of competing destinations. The report names no further decision dates or binding deadlines.
The next relevant reviews will come with new economic and tourism data. No specific publication date is given.
BBVA Research had already lowered its earlier Canary Islands forecast of 2.4% in June by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1% for 2026. For 2027, the Canary Islands would be at 1.9%, the same forecast level as the Balearic Islands.