The Canarian paradox: lots of growth, little prosperity — what three reports reveal about the island model

It is a sentence that captures the tension precisely. When the Canarian premier Fernando Clavijo received the annual report of the Canaries' Economic and Social Council (CES) in May, he called it a «faithful X-ray» of the islands — while concluding that 2025 had been «a good year in every respect», with more jobs, higher income per head and better social indicators. The problem: the same X-ray shows a patient who is unwell in crucial respects. And it is not the only one.

What the CES report really says

The Economic and Social Council is not an opposition group but an official advisory body of unions, employers and experts. Its latest annual report, presented in May 2026 with sixteen recommendations, reads for long stretches like a list of failings: the Canaries suffer from an acute housing shortage, from wages depressed by low productivity, and from bureaucracy that stifles business dynamism. Add to that the heavy dependence on tourism as the main economic engine.

One figure sums up the dilemma: around 20 percent of the population struggle to make it to the end of the month. And although the poverty risk fell slightly recently, it remains almost five points above the Spanish average. CES president José Carlos Francisco therefore calls for diversifying the economy and making it more crisis-resistant — away from one-sided dependence. Notably, even Clavijo admitted the social improvements were «not yet sufficient», and named housing explicitly as one of the biggest problems, now even weighing on the labour market.

The second finding: as rich as Galicia, twice as excluded

A report presented by the social organisation Cáritas through its FOESSA foundation at the end of 2025 — produced by around 140 researchers from 51 universities and institutions — is starker still. It places the Canaries in the category of «restrictive scarcity» and offers a comparison that sticks: although the Canaries have a GDP per head similar to Galicia's, they show more than twice as much social exclusion as the northern Spanish region.

In other words: it is not simply that too little is generated — but that the wealth generated reaches people poorly. This shows most drastically in the housing crisis: according to the report, almost 400,000 people on the islands fall behind on housing-related payments or instalment purchases. Housing costs, the core message runs, make people poor.

A pattern, not just an island problem

The Canaries are not alone in this diagnosis. Across Spain, economists are now warning that regional economic models are reaching their limits. In Catalonia, for instance, the «Informe Fènix» sounded the alarm — a report advised by renowned economists such as Jordi Galí, which speaks of a «continuous impoverishment» of the population. Even though that particular report concerns Catalonia and not the Canaries, it shows that the question of whether growth automatically means prosperity for all is being asked anew, and critically, in several Spanish regions.

In the Canarian case there is an added twist. Unlike the often-cited example of Madrid — much wealth that translates poorly into quality of life — Canarian income per head is not high at all. The islands combine a comparatively low income level with high inequality and expensive housing. That is the least favourable of all combinations.

Why it matters for residents

For many who live here — whether for generations or as newcomers — this is not an abstract statistic but daily life: high rents, fluctuating seasonal wages, a strained health system. The reports thus name what many have long felt. But they also offer an important distinction: the problem is less a lack of economic output than a problem of distribution and structure — low productivity, one-sided reliance on tourism, too little affordable housing.

What should follow is, predictably, where the political camps diverge: some call for more public housing and social programmes, others for less bureaucracy, more available building land and lower taxes. But the common denominator of all the reports is unmistakable — and stands in remarkable contrast to the narrative of a «good year in every respect»: the current model creates growth, but still too little tangible prosperity for those who live on the islands.