What's at stake

On 12 May 2026, AENA published the April figures for the eight Canary Islands airports: 4.43 million passengers, down 3.5 percent year on year. In the same month, Spain's mainland AENA network grew 3.7 percent. The gap is not explained by the Easter Week shift. It is explained by a structural shift in source markets: the two traditional pillars — Germans and Scandinavians — are melting. Britain holds. Italians, Poles, Irish, Swiss are growing in double digits. Who replaces the regulars? And in what proportion? The Canary tourism economy will decide on that question over the coming years.

April: minus 100,000 travellers

The Canary Islands government tourism statistics, processed by Canarias7 on 13 May, paint the clearest picture since the pandemic. April: 44,000 fewer Germans than the same month a year earlier — a rate of minus 16 percent. The Scandinavian market broke even more sharply, down more than 30 percent. Across the four-month comparison January to April, the islands are 150,000 travellers short, while the mainland AENA network gained 3.3 million more passengers. Libertad Digital Canarias calculated on 13 May: 150,000 missing travellers multiplied by the ISTAC daily spend of 178.16 euros amount to roughly 26.7 million euros of forgone island consumption in four months.

Tenerife Sur dropped 8.2 percent in April, Fuerteventura 6.7 percent, Lanzarote 3.7 percent, Gran Canaria 2.8 percent — the airports where the tourism hub sits. Tenerife North, La Palma, El Hierro and La Gomera grew — the airports serving inter-island and mainland traffic. The geographic pattern is clear: where the sun-and-beach resorts are, the figures are falling.

Comparison chart of Canary Islands source markets 2025 and 2026 — shrinking and growing markets

The new map of Canary Islands source markets. Graphic: CITA News.

Why the Germans are staying away

The German withdrawal has three demonstrable causes, all documented in German and Canarian market analyses. First, macroeconomically: Germany has barely grown for two years (2025 GDP: plus 0.2 percent), inflation stood at 2.3 percent in January 2026, unemployment climbed to 6.6 percent. The number of trips remains stable, but price sensitivity is rising. Second, competition: the Eastern Mediterranean — Turkey, Greece, Egypt — secured early summer bookings for 2026, because Antalya, Heraklion and Hurghada are cheaper. Turkey recently topped the German tour-operator booking ranking with 25 percent share. Third, the demographic detail: the 46 to 60 age group lost six percent of market share according to the Reiseanalyse 2026 — precisely the segment with the highest purchasing power, the one that filled the four-star hotels in Meloneras.

In January 2026, Diario de Avisos had calculated that German air capacity to the Canary Islands for winter and summer would be reduced by 8.2 percent in 2026. In February 2026, tourism minister Jéssica de León publicly spoke of «great uncertainty» around the German market. In April the figure landed at minus 16 percent. The escalation path is visible.

Why the Scandinavians are breaking

The Nordic crisis is older and structural. Already in 2025 the Canary Islands lost 39,000 Swedes (minus 11.7 percent), 12,000 Norwegians (minus 3 percent) and nearly 18,000 Finns (minus 9 percent). In Q1 plus April 2026 the trend accelerated: over 30 percent decline in April alone. Reasons? Three factors overlap: first, the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone lost value against the euro; second, the end of the Nordic winter season traditionally coincides with Easter, which fell earlier in 2026; third — and this is the structural component — Swedish tour operators have complained for years that the Canary Islands' image is «stuck thirty years ago» and the younger buyer demographic chooses other destinations. Already in 2019, Canarias7 wrote of a Nordic market that «doesn't recover». Six years later the picture is the same, only deeper.

Who fills in? Italians, Poles, Irish

The gap is closing from several directions. Italy supplied 876,000 visitors in 2025, according to Canarias7 numbers — a gain of 11 percent or 87,000 people. In the first ten months of 2025, 52,282 more Italians arrived than the previous year (plus 8.4 percent), the strongest growth of any major market. Poland, Hungary, Romania added over 15 percent; Ireland grew 9 percent in 2025 to 842,000 people, and by January 2026 growth of Irish airport flows to the Canary Islands was already running between 9 and 13 percent; the Swiss markets grew similarly. Poland exploded: in the first bimester of 2026, Polish air capacity to the Canary Islands grew by more than 30 percent. For 2026, Promotur had — shortly before the April shock — still forecast roughly 2.8 percent growth in foreign travellers, a figure that looks untenable after the April statistic.

The question is not whether growth is happening. It is: are Italy, Poland, Ireland enough to replace Germany and Scandinavia? In absolute terms in 2025, Italy supplied 876,000, Germany 2,940,000 visitors. An 11 percent rise from Italy means 96,000 additional Italians. A 5 percent fall in Germans means 147,000 missing Germans. The maths doesn't add up.

What it means for the Canary Islands

The structural shift is happening in a tourism system optimised for the German travel profile: package tours, 8.5 days' stay, 1,641 euro budget, high repeat rate. Italians travel differently — shorter, more flexibly, less package-driven, with Mediterranean summer competition from their home country. Poles and Irish are growth markets, but their per-capita spending is lower. Hotel prices in the Canary Islands rose sharply in 2024 and 2025; Excelcan had projected for 2026 «small declines» and «a soft landing». The April data accelerated that landing. Lopesan is nonetheless investing in the largest hotel in its history: 953 rooms in Meloneras, architectural contract signed on 7 May 2026 — five days before the AENA statistic. The bet: by opening around 2029, the market will have re-sorted itself. Until then, two paths exist — either the gap closes, or the southern resorts must adapt their model.

Frequently asked questions

How many Germans are the Canary Islands missing?
In April 2026, 44,000 fewer Germans travelled to the islands than in April 2025 — minus 16 percent. Air capacity for 2026 is being reduced by 8.2 percent.
Why are fewer Germans coming?
Three factors: German economic weakness (GDP plus 0.2 percent in 2025, inflation 2.3 percent, rising unemployment); cheaper competition from Turkey, Greece and Egypt; loss of the purchasing-power-strong 46-60 age segment.
How hard does it hit the Scandinavians?
In April 2026, minus over 30 percent. In all of 2025, Sweden lost 11.7 percent (39,000 people), Norway 3 percent, Finland 9 percent. Structural.
Which markets are growing?
Italy plus 11 percent (876,000 visitors in 2025), Ireland plus 9 percent (842,000), Poland over 30 percent air-capacity growth, Switzerland plus 9 to 13 percent. Belgium plus 7.6 percent.
Can Italians and Poles replace the Germans?
Not directly in numbers. Germany supplied nearly 3 million in 2025, Italy 876,000. An 11 percent Italian rise means 96,000 additional Italians — a 5 percent German fall means 147,000 missing Germans.
Is there a refuge effect from the Middle East conflict?
Turespaña estimates in mid-May 2026 that German summer 2026 bookings will shift by 15 percent toward the Balearic and Canary Islands due to the Middle East situation. For the season already lost, that comes too late.