What changes now for buyers, residents and holidaymakers?
Buyers should not wait for better mortgage rates, says Gonzalo Bernardos, professor of economics at the University of Barcelona, on the Trioteca podcast. His key line: “You can't change the price of the flat, you only buy it once.”
None of this changes the rules. No new deadlines, applications or subsidies for buyers in the Canary Islands are known, and this is one economist's view, not a decision by any authority.
Residents and newcomers weighing a purchase should first find the right home and then check the financing, says Bernardos. Holidaymakers will notice nothing, as the report gives no details on rentals or holiday lets.
Bernardos names no region. There are no price figures for the island of Tenerife alone, only for the whole province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
Why is waiting for lower rates not worth it, according to Bernardos?
The purchase price is fixed, while the mortgage can be adjusted later, in Bernardos' words. Since the 2019 mortgage reform there are several ways to do it: the novación (a change to the loan contract), the subrogación (a switch to another bank) and repayment through a new loan.
His example is a family with a fixed-rate mortgage at 2.7%. If rates fall in five years, it could review the terms.
Bernardos still does not advise buying at any price. He criticises the pressure on buyers who reserve homes unseen out of fear of competition.
Retirement is another argument. Anyone who has paid off the mortgage by retirement cuts running costs sharply, says Bernardos, and the property can later help fund something like a care home place.
How are prices developing in the Canary Islands?
The housing ministry (Ministerio de Vivienda) reports an average of €2,279 per square metre in the Canary Islands for the second quarter of 2026. That is 14.2% more than a year ago.
Spain as a whole stood at €2,355, up 12.5% and a record. The province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife reaches €2,296.2 per square metre, up 15.2%.
In the province of Las Palmas the figure is €2,263, up 13.1%. The notaries' council (Consejo General del Notariado) reports a rise of 18.8% in the Canary Islands for July 2026.
Nationally it reports 7.7% at €2,112 per square metre. The two statistics measure differently and cannot be compared directly.
The price index of Spain's statistics office, the INE, rose 11% in the Canary Islands in the second quarter of 2026, the 45th quarterly rise in a row. In the first quarter it was still 12.9%.
Second-hand homes rose 12.9%. New-builds rose 7.4%.
What does a purchase cost on top, and how much capital do you need?
Banks usually finance around 80% of a property's value, says Bernardos. Buyers must find the remaining 20% themselves, plus taxes and fees.
The Canarian government sets the tax rates. They are in Decree-Law 1/2009 of 21 April (BOC No. 77 of 23 April 2009, the Canary Islands official gazette).
One tax guide lists IGIC, the Canary Islands consumption tax, at 7%. That rate applies to new-build homes.
Stamp duty rates in that guide contradict each other and count as unconfirmed. A German guide puts the extra costs at 8 to 12% of the price.
For non-residents, the guide often cites only 60 to 70% financing. Neither figure is verified, so buyers should check with the Agencia Tributaria Canaria (the Canarian tax agency) or a notary.
Bernardos proposes public guarantees for mortgages above 100% of the purchase price. He also wants to allow taxes on purchases to be staggered or cut, above all the ITP, the transfer tax on second-hand homes.
Such measures would have to limit the risk, he says. No decision on any of this has been taken.
Who is the market still open to, according to Bernardos?
Bernardos distinguishes between two segments. For luxury property, he sees weaker demand after years of sharp rises.
For homes under 350,000 euros, activity in Spain stays high, he says. He blames the mismatch between supply and demand and the difficulty young people have in finding a rental.
The supply of rental homes in Spain has fallen 17.7% in three years, according to El Debate. Some families therefore prefer to buy, partly with help from their parents, while rent makes it harder to save for a deposit.
What is still open, and what comes next?
For Spain, Bernardos expects 8% fewer sales and 5% higher prices in 2026, compared with a rise of 12.8% in 2025. That is his forecast, not an official figure.
He thinks a possible mortgage cap by the Banco de España, Spain's central bank, would be wrong. No decision on one was found in the sources.
The INE price index for the third quarter of 2026 is due in the last part of the year. The government statement gives no exact date, and the regional and island elections of 2027 are seen as the next political milestone.